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THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
4.1N 107.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 4.4N 106.5E, APPROXIMATELY 243 NM
NORTHEAST OF SINGAPORE. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 242301Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE PASS DEPICTS A BROAD AND WEAK LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH SOME DEEP CONVECTIVE BURSTS DISPLACED TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE CIRCULATION. A 241436Z ASCAT-C IMAGE REVEALS 5-10
KT WINDS AROUND THE BROAD LLC WITH STRONGER 25-30 KT WINDS 160 NM TO THE NORTH WITHIN THE NORTHEAST SURGE. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT 99W IS IN AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH WEAK OUTFLOW
ALOFT, LOW TO MODERATE (15-20 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, CLIMATOLOGICALLY HIGH SURFACE PRESSURES, OFFSET BY WARM (28-29C) SSTS. GLOBAL MODELS GENERALLY HAVE VERY POOR CONFIDENCE THAT 99W WILL REACH WARNING CRITERIA
IN WITHIN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 16 TO 18 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
4.1N 107.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 4.4N 106.5E, APPROXIMATELY 243 NM
NORTHEAST OF SINGAPORE. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 242301Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE PASS DEPICTS A BROAD AND WEAK LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH SOME DEEP CONVECTIVE BURSTS DISPLACED TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE CIRCULATION. A 241436Z ASCAT-C IMAGE REVEALS 5-10
KT WINDS AROUND THE BROAD LLC WITH STRONGER 25-30 KT WINDS 160 NM TO THE NORTH WITHIN THE NORTHEAST SURGE. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT 99W IS IN AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH WEAK OUTFLOW
ALOFT, LOW TO MODERATE (15-20 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, CLIMATOLOGICALLY HIGH SURFACE PRESSURES, OFFSET BY WARM (28-29C) SSTS. GLOBAL MODELS GENERALLY HAVE VERY POOR CONFIDENCE THAT 99W WILL REACH WARNING CRITERIA
IN WITHIN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 16 TO 18 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
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